The Iranian economy is declining and could ultimately collapse soon specially after the US withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), according to a report by the Congressional Research Service.
The report, titled “U.S. Decision to Cease Implementing the Iran Nuclear Agreement”, said: “There is potential for Iran’s economy to decline to the point where Iran’s leaders decide to accept a renegotiation of the JCPOA along the lines President Trump has insisted upon. Alternatively, severe economic deterioration could prompt Iranian officials to negotiate restrictions on Iran’s missile program, such as a limitation on the ranges of such missiles.”
It summarises Trump’s complaints about the agreement, like its failure to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and its failures to stop Iran from carrying out a malign campaign of expansionism in the Middle East, and also addresses some wider legislative complaints, like the fact that the JCPOA was not approved by the Senate, as all treaties must be.
Exemptions
The report, documented in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin, was written by Kenneth Katzman, a specialist in Middle Eastern affairs; Paul Kerr, a specialist in non-proliferation; and Valerie Heitshusen, a specialist on Congress and the legislative process.
It advises that there is a long list of possibilities that could develop following US withdrawal, including that world powers (especially those still a party to the deal, like Europe, Russia, and China) may try to gain exemption from US penalties for doing business with Iran.
The report read: “The EU might do so through such actions as blocking regulations or the World Trade Organization complaint process. EU governments might also seek from the United States exemptions from penalties.”
Collapsing Economy
Of course, it is possible that the JCPOA “will collapse without US participation”, especially if exemptions are not given for international firms who won’t want to lose access to the US markets.
The report reads: “Major international firms, now that they face the threat of being virtually shut out of the large U.S. market, might exit Iran and thereby cause Iran’s economy to deteriorate sharply. Iranian leaders might argue that Iran is no longer benefitting from complying with the JCPOA and then resume those nuclear activities that are restricted under the accord. Iran could, for example, reinstall centrifuges, increase centrifuge production, or produce enriched uranium containing more than the JCPOA-permitted amount of uranium-235.”
What should be noted here is that the Iranian economy has been in decline since the mullahs took over in 1979.
Their currency, the rial, lost about a fifth of its value in April over a short amount of time and while some of that could be down to uncertainty over the decision that Trump made on May 8, the majority of it is down to the Iranian Regime’s handling of the economy.
Through corruption and mismanagement, the Regime has bankrupted the Iranian people and now the Regime must pay the price.