le-soleil August 05: (Quebec) On both sides of the Atlantic, Iran has been under pressure, especially for its ambitions in the field of missiles. The US Congress recently passed a bill imposing unprecedented sanctions against Tehran, especially against the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). One day after Iran tried a satellite ramp, the Europeans joined their US ally to stir up the tone and demand the cessation of the ballistic missile program.
The US Treasury Department reacted more vigorously, immediately hitting six affiliates of the Shahid-Hemmat industrial group, freezing their property on US soil, and banning any transactions. This industrial group belongs to the IRGC that leads the development of missiles in Iran.
In a letter to the United Nations Security Council, the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom have complained that this Simorgh launcher, tested by Iran, would have the capacity to carry a warhead if it was fitted out as a ballistic missile.
Not surprisingly, during the ceremony to approve the presidency of Hassan Rohani on Thursday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei assured that his country would continue its missile program despite international pressure.
Why so much insistence?
Why does the Iranian regime insist so much on pursuing a missile program that has hitherto brought more harm to the international arena than military or space acquisitions? How to interpret this stubbornness? Is it a show of strength? Or an operation to hide a great fragility?
In all matters relating to Iranian military power, this regime takes into account two concerns:
- Do not disappoint its followers
Any renunciation of the announced slogans could leave a very bad influence on the clientele of the theocracy in Iran and abroad. In Iran, the base of the regime is dwindling, limited to privileged, military and paramilitary forces, their relatives and part of the minority clergy, a highly eroded social base. Outside, from Lebanon to Iraq, militias and extremist and sectarian organizations that depend on the generosity of the Supreme Leader to survive.
- Favoring the export of the revolution by all means to guarantee the survival of the regime
That is why, in all its international challenges, the Iranian regime is in the habit of yielding only if the pressure is too great. This was seen in the case of the nuclear issue: this policy enabled Tehran to gain 11 years before it was obliged to yield to the agreement with the 5 + 1 (in 2015). As absurd as it may seem, the leaders of the Iranian theocracy have always relied on the difficulties of the Western bureaucracy to block its excesses.
While Tehran’s ballistic missile program is nurtured and sustained by Pyongyang, Iran itself supplies missiles to foreign parties. In Yemen, Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles against Saudi Arabia. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is talking about the launch of underground missile production facilities. Hassan Nasrollah, the leader of Hezbollah, has just reiterated this week for those who have not heard it, that this organization “is fully fed, trained, financed and armed” by Iran.
That is to say that the stakes of this program of the Iranian missiles are far more dangerous than one imagines. Especially since the freezing of Iran’s nuclear program, the regime has made the ballistic program the cornerstone of its regional adventurism.
However, it must be recognized that many things have changed in recent months.
General Mohammad-Ali Jaafari, the head of the IRGC, threatened the United States by stating that it would be better to “withdraw American military bases that are within a 1000 km radius of Iran” if Washington was about to declare sanctions against the IRGC. These threats do not seem to have had much effect on the representatives of the two American chambers, both of whom have adopted by an overwhelming majority sanctions against the IRGC. Indeed, at a time when Washington is openly talking about a revision of its policy towards Iran, the change in the Iranian regime is increasingly evoked.
After being deprived of the nuclear bomb, the Supreme Leader deprived of its missiles, risks losing all the prestige that remains to him. The international community must therefore unite more, to force a weakened regime to change its behavior, instead of sending its diplomats to bow to the demands of the Caliph of Tehran under the pretext of the inauguration of its president.
Shahram Golestaneh, President, Iran Democratic Association, Ottawa – http://irandemocratic.org/